Priorities

Bjorn Lomborg is known for his work focusing on ROI (return on investment) for efforts to combat the world's problems. He wrote an op-ed that appeared in yesterday's Wall Street Journal. It is a must read. An excerpt:

Research for the Copenhagen Consensus, in which Nobel laureate economists analyze new research about the costs and benefits of different solutions to world problems, shows that just $60 million spent on providing Vitamin A capsules and therapeutic Zinc supplements for under-2-year-olds would reach 80% of the infants in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, with annual economic benefits (from lower mortality and improved health) of more than $1 billion. That means doing $17 worth of good for each dollar spent. Spending $1 billion on tuberculosis would avert an astonishing one million deaths, with annual benefits adding up to $30 billion. This gives $30 back on the dollar.

Lomborg has always been skeptical about the amount of money being poured into combating climate change. Current efforts often cannot be justified based on the return"

Acknowledging that some investments shouldn't be our top priority isn't the same as saying that the challenges don't exist. It simply means working out how to do the most good with our limited resources. It will send a signal, too, to research communities about areas that need more study.

Indeed. By the way, here is further evidence that Global Warming, whatever its cause, duration, or serverity, is not responsible for a higher number of hurricanes. In fact:

warmer temperatures will actually reduce the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic and those making landfall, research meteorologist Tom Knutson reported in a study released Sunday.

Very interesting.

March of the Penguins?

You can't deny that there have been, are, and will exist fluctuations in climate. This young British woman wanted to see the impact of climate change on the North Pole. She intends to make a documentary of it, as the youngest woman to reach the Pole on skis.



I don't post this because I dispute what she observed. I post it because the MSNBC video includes penguins, who definitely do not live at the North Pole.

Warming Shwarming Update

Some proponents of the more alarmist sect of Global Warming have attempted to make a link between climate change and recent hurricane activity.

Not so fast.

The only thing we know is that we don't know much.

A Mystery

This is an interesting article from NPR. It talks about the difficulty that scientists are having interpreting data on seawater temperature. It's not getting warmer. Hmmm. Could this mean that understanding of climate change is imperfect? Unsure?

Seems to be the case.

SPOTD #134

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! I've had this half-completed for almost a month. Finally I have time to get it out.

As the first matter of business I would direct you to this post from the SPOTD blog, some great videos of the kids being kids. In the first one Joseph decides to feed Millie her dinner. In the second Millie doesn't know what to decide. It is amazing to watch these kids grow. I also have written some interesting things on the blog and at In Rare Form.

Today's phrase:
I've used this one before, but if it fits, it fits:

Actual:
¡Felíz Navidad y Prospero Año Nuevo!

Phonetic with emphasis on bold syllable:
¡Fay-lease nah-vee-dahd ee prose-pear-oh ahn-yo nway-voe.

Translation:
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

Stem Cells
This is a fantastic article about how one man decided to find an alternative to embryonic stem cells for research. He appears to have succeeded.

Buy, buy, buy
There is an interesting new retailer that wants your business:
http://www.buynlarge.com/
Actually, this is a site set up to promote Pixar's new film, Wall-E. I linked to the new trailer in last Saturday's AweVidSat.

Football & Loyalty
This is the time of year for the college and NFL coaching carousel to enter full swing. Bobby Petrino's exit from Atlanta is a key example of when this is handlef poorly.

Beedle
A very rare book was sold bY Sotheby's, with the proceeds going to charity. Read more about it here.

Polar Bears
Are they really that bad off due to climate change?

Trip Quiz
This website promises to provide, based on the results of a quiz, the perfect destination for your next trip.
http://www.besttripchoices.com/
Where will you be going?

Featuritis
What happens when bad features happen to good concepts? An epidemic.

Serving
This is a great article about the serving Miss Utah. She is a combat veteran and serving member of the Utah National Guard. This is a nice article about what kind of person she is.

Link of the Day
This is the link for the 2 minute preview to the next season of Lost. Shortened or not, I'll be watching when it comes back on the area in a few weeks.

I Implore! No More Gore Warming Bore!

I have discussed Global Warming on various occasions. I object to the way that it has been marketed to the public and I object to the prescriptions of it's promoters. They pose a danger to the global economic system and would pull resources from issues of greater import and need.

Gore's Warming is based on alarmism and urgency. It is propelled by a false notion of consensus. To claim that something is true because there is consensus is to ignore millenia of scientific precedent. That fact is acknowledged in this article from Science Magazine. They also claim that in a study of reports and articles, 75% directly agree with the "consensus," which is that recent climate change is largely anthropogenic, or resulting from man's activities. The article also states the following:

Many details about climate interactions are not well understood, and there are ample grounds for continued research to provide a better basis for understanding climate dynamics. The question of what to do about climate change is also still open.
Gore would have us believe that a consensus on the anthropogenic nature of climate change is also a consensus on what should be done. This is where he deals with us falsely.

Moreover, Gore takes the Science Mag consensus and twists it, exaggerating it's prediction to his own ends. This is demonstrated by the concern of more than 400 scientists from around the world. I don't think each of the 400 cited by the Senate committee report dispute man-made warming as the title suggests. They do dispute Gore's alarmism.

Gore's response is to question the credibility of 25 or 30 of the scientists, suggesting that ties to oil companies disqualify them from inclusion or consideration. Wasn't this the man who worked for 8 years with one of America's best-known perjurers?

Enough.

A Good Read

This is an excellent article by John R. Christy. He is director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville and a participant in the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This is just the article that I have been waiting for.

I'm sure the majority (but not all) of my IPCC colleagues cringe when I say this, but I see neither the developing catastrophe nor the smoking gun proving that human activity is to blame for most of the warming we see. Rather, I see a reliance on climate models (useful but never "proof") and the coincidence that changes in carbon dioxide and global temperatures have loose similarity over time.
There are some of us who remain so humbled by the task of measuring and understanding the extraordinarily complex climate system that we are skeptical of our ability to know what it is doing and why. As we build climate data sets from scratch and look into the guts of the climate system, however, we don't find the alarmist theory matching observations. (The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite data we analyze at the University of Alabama in Huntsville does show modest warming -- around 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit per century, if current warming trends of 0.25 degrees per decade continue.)
It is my turn to cringe when I hear overstated-confidence from those who describe the projected evolution of global weather patterns over the next 100 years, especially when I consider how difficult it is to accurately predict that system's behavior over the next five days.

The whole thing is fantastic.

The End of the World

According to the United Nations, it's coming soon:

The human population is living far beyond its means and inflicting damage on the environment that could pass points of no return, according to a major report issued Thursday by the United Nations.

The politics of fear continue:

The speed at which mankind has used the Earth’s resources over the past 20 years has put “humanity’s very survival” at risk, a study involving 1,400 scientists has concluded.

Remember, pointing out this kind of propaganda with some healthy skepticism doesn't mean I advocate acting without consideration for environmental impact. We need to examine the incentives behind different groups advocating radical measures that would be borne principally by the United States and our partners.

Wit & Wisdom

From Harry Reid:

One reason why we have the fires in California is global warming.

Although he later backed away from this statement when asked to clarify, to have said it all tells us a lot about him.

SPOTD #132

Scroll down the SPOTD blog for excellent stuff.

Today's phrase:
Today's quote is from Hippocrates. It demonstrates that there have always been things to be pessimistic about. It shows that adults have always worried about the inclinations and acitivites of the young. Sometimes they have been right, sometimes not.

Actual:
Los jóvenes de hoy no parecen tener respeto alguno por el pasado ni esperanza alguna para el porvenir.

Phonetic with emphasis on bold syllable:
Lows ho-vay-nase day oy no pah-ray-sane tay-nare ray-spay-toe ahl-goo-no poor ell pah-sah-doe nee ace-pay-rahn-sah pa-rah ell pro-vane-ear.

Translation:
The youth of today do not appear to have any respect for the past nor any hope for the future.

The Wilhem Scream
This is a fun article, featuring common misquotes of classic movie lines. It also addresses the phenomenon of the Wilhelm Scream. You can see examples of it on the SPOTD blog.

Testaverde
Peter King writes for Sports Illustrated. He can be very longwinded, but I like this bit about Vinny Testaverde's return to the NFL. As a kid I was a big fan during his days at Miami.

Warming Warning
Al Gore's movie now requires a special warning before being shown to school kids in Great Britain.

Crazy Allergies
This kid is allergic to almost every food. Bummer.

Repairing Sports
Chuck Klosterman has some ideas about how to repair sports coverage. I agree.

Link of the Day
An interesting article about Hillary Clinton and her former cat Socks.If she discarded Socks upon leaving the White House, will she discard some of her supporters upon returning?

Ignoble Nobel, part 2

I felt like rehashing my stance on Global Warming. My first post on the subject was this one, and I broke down the different Warming beliefs this way:

1. Global Warming is caused in large part by man, is a grave crisis, and man must act immediately to prevent disaster (Al Gore).
   
2. Global Warming is real, may be caused by man and could be problematic for the future.
   
3. There is no "Global Warming," aside from the normal cyclical changes in climate that have occurred many times in history.
   
4. There is no warming. There may even be cooling.

I stated then that #3 was closest to my personal belief. I feel comfortable with that viewpoint, and it is supported by people like Dr. William Gray, one of the most prominent hurricane forecasters in the world:

"We're brainwashing our children," said Dr Gray, 78, a long-time professor at Colorado State University. "They're going to the Gore movie [An Inconvenient Truth] and being fed all this. It's ridiculous."
...Dr Gray, whose annual forecasts of the number of tropical storms and hurricanes are widely publicised, said a natural cycle of ocean water temperatures - related to the amount of salt in ocean water - was responsible for the global warming that he acknowledges has taken place. However, he said, that same cycle meant a period of cooling would begin soon and last for several years.
"We'll look back on all of this in 10 or 15 years and realise how foolish it was," Dr Gray said.
During his speech to a crowd of about 300 that included meteorology students and a host of professional meteorologists, Dr Gray also said those who had linked global warming to the increased number of hurricanes in recent years were in error.
He cited statistics showing there were 101 hurricanes from 1900 to 1949, in a period of cooler global temperatures, compared to 83 from 1957 to 2006 when the earth warmed.

Writer Mark Steyn weighs in on Gore's pseudo-religion:

A schoolkid in Ontario was complaining the other day that, whatever subject you do, you have to sit through Gore's movie: It turns up in biology class, in geography, in physics, in history, in English.
Whatever you're studying, it's all you need to know. It fulfils the same role in the schoolhouses of the guilt-ridden developed world that the Koran does in Pakistani madrassas. Gore's rise is as remorseless as those sea levels. I assumed Gore's clammy embrace would do for the environmental movement what his belated endorsement had done for Howard Dean's 2004 presidential candidacy: kill it stone dead. But governor Dean was constrained by actual humdrum prosaic vote tallies in Iowa and New Hampshire. The ecochondriacs, by contrast, seem happiest when they're most unmoored from reality.
That's where Gore comes in. No matter how you raise the stakes ("It might take another 30 Kyotos", says Jerry Mahlman of the National Centre for Atmospheric Research), Saint Al of the Ecopalypse can raise them higher. Climate change, he says, is the most important moral, ethical, spiritual and political issue humankind has ever faced. Ever. And not just humankind, but alienkind, too. "We are," warns Gore, "altering the balance of energy between our planet and the rest of the universe".

It is interesting how anyone who questions liberal orthodoxy on Global Warming is labeled as anti-environment. It seems like anyone who swallows Belief #1 is anti-reality. Even if you think warming is caused by man, to act like we know EXACTLY what will cause it is absurd. It presumes a great deal more than we know. Want to know why this propaganda has reached such a level of acceptance? Dr. Gray has the answer:

It bothers me that my fellow scientists are not speaking out against something they know is wrong. But they also know that they'd never get any grants if they spoke out. I don't care about grants.

This illustrates the need for skepticism and a questioning mind. It is at the heart of real scientific discovery.

Ignoble Nobel, part 1

This is a little late, but I was on the road the day that Al Gore was announced as the winner of this year's Nobel Peace Prize.

The Nobel committee tasked with selecting the winner of the Peace Prize has a spotty record. According to an excellent editorial in the New Hampshire Union Leader, this is the purpose of the award:

[Nobel] endowed the Nobel Peace Prize and instructed that it go "to the person who shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between the nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses."

I was very happy with 2006's recipient, although his work does not exactly fit the profile laid out by Nobel, it seems clear that extending credit to underserved populations is more impactful to peace than writing a book and making a movie. As the Union Leader states:

On Friday the prize was given to Al Gore and the International Panel on Climate Change. Two days before, a British judge ruled that Gore's film, "An Inconvenient Truth," contained so many errors (read: lies) that it could be shown in British public schools only if accompanied by a fact sheet correcting the errors.
The Nobel Peace Prize is worse than a joke. It's a fraud. It is such a transparent fraud that the five Norwegian politicians who award it have been reduced to defending their decision by concocting elaborate rationalizations. This year they laughably claimed that Gore deserves the prize because, well, global climate change" may induce large-scale migration and lead to greater competition for the Earth's resources," and "there may be increased danger of violent conflicts and wars."

More on this tomorrow.

Priorities

In an e-mail dialogue with a close friend this week, I explained that my position on Global Warming does not mean that I don't care about the planet. It means that I don't know that climate change is man-induced and that I seriously doubt that we can do very much to affect it. That assumes that recent changes are not a part of normal climate patterns, which they may well be.

Pete DuPont writes in today's Opinion Journal about where we should focus our time and resources. He begins by looking at climate change during human history:

The National Center for Policy Analysis's new Global Warming Primer (www.ncpa.org/globalwarming/) shows that over the past 400,000 years, "the Earth's temperature has consistently risen and fallen hundreds of years prior to increases and declines in CO2 levels" (emphasis added). For example, about half of the global warming increases since the mid-1800s occurred before greenhouse gas emissions began their significant increases after the 1950s, and then temperatures declined well into the 1970s when CO2 levels were increasing.
During the 20th Century the earth warmed by one degree Fahrenheit, and today the world is about 0.05 degree warmer than it was in 2001. These small increases have led the global-warming establishment to demand that we adopt the international Kyoto policy of stopping the growth of CO2 emissions so that global warming does not destroy us all. Or in Al Gore's words, "At stake is nothing less than the survival of human civilization and the habitability of the earth for our species."

Gore's statement is emblematic of all that is wrong with the environmental movement. His singleminded hyperbole is also an example of misplaced priorities. DuPont cites Bjorn Lomborg, noted critic of Gore and his followers:

Mr. Lomborg believes that while we must develop low-carbon technologies, "many other issues are much more important than global warming." Malaria kills more than one million people each year, and some four million die from malnutrition, three million from HIV/AIDS, 2.5 million from various air pollutants, and nearly two million from lack of clean drinking water. Solving these problems would save more lives and do more to improve the human condition than spending money on global CO2 reduction.
The final table in the book dramatically makes the case. Fully implementing Kyoto would cost $180 billion per year, but for $52 billion per year we could do much better by tackling the challenges Mr. Lomborg mentions. The world would avoid 28 billion malaria infections (and 85 million deaths) over a century, instead of Kyoto's avoidance of 70 million infections (and 140,000 deaths). There would be one billion fewer people in poverty instead of Kyoto's one million fewer, and 229 million fewer people would suffer from starvation rather than Kyoto's two million.

Hmmmm. I know where I want to put my time AND money. You may want to give Al Gore $25,000 so that he can exaggerate to you in person. Not me.

SPOTD #130

I have allowed quite a long time to pass since the last SPOTD (over a month) and I have also been less active (though still posting) on the blog. My family is doing great and watching these kids grow is such a treat. I hope everyone else is doing well.

Today's phrase:
Today's quote is from Gaius (or Publius) Cornelius Tacitus. I'm in one of those moods.

Actual:
Una mala paz es todavía peor que la guerra.

Phonetic with emphasis on bold syllable:
Oo-nah mah-lah pahs ess toe-dah-vee-ah pay-ore kay lah gay-rrah

Translation:
A bad peace is even worse than war.

Blog Recap
Scroll down to see what I've been up to for the last month.

Spaceport Reality
This is a pretty cool report on the planned U.S. Spaceport. It will be used by private firms in space travel.

Movies
Ever want to know how accurate the science is in some well-known films? Look no farther.
It was British movie time in our house, so we watched the following two films and enjoyed them quite a bit:
Miss Potter: A biopic about Beatrix Potter. Very enjoyable, family friendly. It was released earlier this year.
Remains of the Day: An older film, released in 1992 or 1993. The acting is really top-notch and the story is excruciatingly real.

iTunes future?
The time could come when music is delivered to the listener in a very different way than it is now, This will be critical for the slow-to-adapt music industry.

Lost
This one is for my sister. She and I were both fans of the shortlived series, The Marshall. Adding Jeff Fahey to a great cast is a good move.

Kind of Cold
When efforts to highlight global warming end like this, you can't help but smile:
British yachtsman Adrian Flanagan is trying to prove global warming by sailing along the Northern Sea route, which sailors have pursued for centuries.He’s run into the same problem that sailors have run into for centuries: Ice...It gets better. While he is waiting for the ice to melt, old Adrian is running into polar bears, who apparently 1.) are not nearing extinction and 2.) can swim. This may come as a shock to devout followers of the New York Times.

Colbert
Some good commentary on the unseemly melding of politics and entertainment.

King
This article is great for the intro, where a player from the NFL writes about the end of his career.

Link of the Day
This is one listing of the best surprise endings of all times.

Awesome Video Saturday XII

This first video is from the same forum as last Saturday's AweVidSat. It is a talk by Will Wright, the man who created The Sims and Sim City. He has a very new and interesting concept that should be worth exploring once it becomes available.



This second video is of a talk by a man named Bjorn Lomborg. He is an economist who has gained notoreity for his ideas on how governments and other groups should prioritize dealing with the world's problems. His concern is allocating resources to where the need is greatest AND the potential for success is significant. Not surprisingly, Global Warming doesn't make the top cut. This talk is a few years old, but the debate remains pertinent.

I'm a Traitor

At least according to Robert F. Kennedy, Jr:

"Get rid of all these rotten politicians that we have in Washington, who are nothing more than corporate toadies," said Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the environmentalist author, president of Waterkeeper Alliance and Robert F. Kennedy's son, who grew hoarse from shouting. "This is treason. And we need to start treating them as traitors."

I'm not a politician, nor am I a corporate toadie, but I dispute the beliefs and methods of Global Warming alarmists. If that makes me a traitor, so be it.

Live Earth DOA?

According to the UK Daily Mail, Live Earth has been "branded a foul-mouthed flop."

Reuters reports "Earth underwhelmed by environment pop extravaganza."

Blogger Murdoc looks at the real environmental impact of Live Earth, and it ain't pretty.

Follow the links for more. Apparently the "crisis" will continue.

Speaking Truth to Hot Air

Among Global Warming proponents there is a pushy sort of belief that if you question the theory you are in the pocket of big oil or some kind of knuckle-dragging science-doubter. In an editorial in the Chicago Sun-Times, James M. Taylor presents many reasons why Gore and his ilk should take some of their own medicine:

We must stop tolerating the rejection and distortion of science. We must insist on an end to the cynical use of pseudo-studies known to be false for the purpose of intentionally clouding the public's ability to discern the truth.

There are numerous studies that put a dent in Gore's idea of warming. Taylor enumerates them and I will summarize:

• The glaciers in the Himalayas, Antarctica, and Greenland are actually experiencing net gains in size.
• There are other highly probably explanations for the shrinking of glaciers in places like Mt. Fuji.
• Severe weather events such as hurricanes and tornadoes are either no more common than in the past, or there is no established scientific pattern linking them to "Global Warming."

The idea that we can reverse global climate trends seems ridiculous. It presumes that we know far more than we actually do about how climate operates. I'm not holding my breath for Gore to acknowledge that some of the psuedo-science of his film be reconsidered. We have to do it for him.

Cooling on Warming

I've been collecting some interesting articles on one of my pet issues, climate change. I'll just run through them one at a time:

• The National Post of Canada asks the following question: "How did An Inconvenient Truth become required classroom viewing?" It is being shown in many schools, which is only a bad thing if there is no discussion accompanying the movie's assertions. If you click the link above you'll find articles that the Post has compiled of Global Warming critics. Worth a look.
• Senator James Inhofe of Oklahoma has been a consistent critic of Gore's Global Warming crusade. His office compiled a list of scientists who have reveresed their position on Climate Change.
• This article is a little older, but the gist is that we only have about 5 years left to save the planet. That is ridiculous. This is a quote from WWF (World Wide Fund for Nature) UK head Keith Allot: "We can slash carbon emissions and meet global energy demand without resorting to the red herring of nuclear power." He thinks we can do that within five years. I think that's "allot" of basura.

A Spiritual Crisis

In reference to "Global Warming," Al Gore has said:

It's in part a spiritual crisis. It's a crisis of our own self-definition — who we are. Are we creatures destined to destroy our own species? Clearly not.

Come on, Al, stop thinking small! We can do anything we set our minds to! In all seriousness, I feel compelled to spend some more time on Global Warming and the folks that have called it, among other things, "The Greatest Threat to Face Mankind!"

In this post (on RWP) I referenced a possible end to the Global Warming crusade:

Call me a crackpot or a paranoid, but I couldn't agree more. It may only be a matter of time before Global Warming idealogues move from mandating what kind of lightbulbs we buy to when we procreate. Wouldn't limiting population limit greenhouse gases? Is it so far for them to go? Once they assume control and we cede certain freedoms over how we live, for good or ill, we open the door to the permanent restriction on our freedoms.

I didn't have to wait long for the realization of this concern:

HAVING large families should be frowned upon as an environmental misdemeanour in the same way as frequent long-haul flights, driving a big car and failing to reuse plastic bags, says a report to be published today by a green think tank.
The paper by the Optimum Population Trust will say that if couples had two children instead of three they could cut their family's carbon dioxide output by the equivalent of 620 return flights a year between London and New York.

Yeah...I think this decision is between Lacy and I. Thanks for the input though. There are more extreme proponents of population control. I won't quote this guy, because he's an idiot.

Be on the watch. Government mandated efforts to combat "Global Warming" will mean less personal freedom and it will start with "minor" things.